Week 14 Sunday MKF Picks



We have reached the stretch run of the National Football League season and a full Week 14 schedule on Sunday offers many opportunities to play and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

Coming into Week 14 (which means before counting Jared Goff’s Thursday night results), the top three quarterbacks in passing yardage this season have been Patrick Mahomes (3815 yards), Deshaun Watson (3542 yards), and Russell Wilson (3479 yards). All three have some compelling matchups this week.

Here are some angles to consider for Sunday’s NFL action on Monkey Knife Fight.

STAR SHOOTOUT – EARLY GAMES

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Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 325.5 PASSING YARDS

As incredible as Mahomes has been this season, this is an enormous number. He has averaged 317.9 passing yards per game and has thrown for more than 325 yards four times in the past five games and has now passed for more than 325 yards in six of 12 games this season. He faces a Miami defense that has been above average against the pass (232.8 yards per game, 6.3 net yards per attempt) and has allowed more than 325 passing yards once in their past eight games.

Tom Brady LESS THAN 305.5 PASSING YARDS

The Bucs’ 43-year-old quarterback has been productive enough this season but it’s still asking a lot for him to throw for more than 300 yards. Brady is averaging 275 passing yards per game this season, having surpassed 305 yards in four of 12 contests. The Minnesota Vikings have been vulnerable against the pass, allowing 261.7 passing yards per game and 6.8 net yards per pass attempt. Even though the Vikings have given up some passing yardage this season, they aren’t getting steamrolled in this respect, having surrendered more than 305 quarterback passing yards once in the past nine games.

Deshaun Watson MORE THAN 275.5 PASSING YARDS

The Texans have started to show signs of life and Watson is a big reason for their resurgence. He has thrown for more than 275 yards in eight of the past nine games and he is averaging 295.2 passing yards per contest. The Bears have been a little suspect at times against the pass, allowing 238.4 passing yards per game and 6.4 net yards per pass attempt, both of which rank around the middle of the league. They have given up more than 275 quarterback passing yards four times this season: twice to Matthew Stafford as well as once each to Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins. Watson is prolific enough to add his name to that list.

Ryan Tannehill MORE THAN 258.5 PASSING YARDS

The Titans don’t lean on Tannehill a whole lot. That’s reserved for running back Derrick Henry. Even so, Tannehill is averaging 249.5 passing yards per game and takes on a Jaguars squad that is abysmal against the pass, allowing 7.7 net yards per pass attempt, worst in the league. In the past six weeks, the Jaguars have allowed more than 258 yards five times and the one week that they didn’t, they held Cleveland to exactly 258 passing yards. Tannehill can make that work.

Rapidfire

DeAndre Hopkins -0.5 receptions vs. Robby Anderson

Although D-Hop is nursing a neck and back injury, he is still really productive, averaging 7.1 receptions per game and had eight catches on 13 targets last week. Anderson is having the best season of his career, putting up 6.3 catches per game. Hopkins faces the Giants and Anderson goes against the Broncos and the Giants have allowed 1.7 more catches per game this season. Overall, it’s not a big advantage for Hopkins but enough to like him as long as he’s actually in the lineup.

Derrick Henry -28.5 rushing yards vs. Dalvin Cook

This is a fascinating number, to see such a gap between two elite runners, but that’s not about the running backs and all about the defenses that they will be matched up against this week. Henry is averaging 109.8 yards per game and will rumble into Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team giving up 136.9 rushing yards per game, third most in the league, as well as 4.3 yards per carry. Cook is averaging 113.6 rushing yards per game and is the rare running back who gets the ball as much as Henry. Cook, however, goes against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is stingy against the run, allowing 3.3 yards per carry, which ranks second, and 74.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks first. It’s a big number but, under the circumstances, Henry can cover it.

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STAR SHOOTOUT – LATE GAMES

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Aaron Rodgers LESS THAN 315.5 PASSING YARDS

Rodgers is having a terrific season, averaging 282.9 passing yards per game, and goes against a Detroit Lions defense that isn’t great against the pass – 261.7 passing yards against per game is tied for sixth worst in the league. At the same time, the Lions have given up more than 315 passing yards just three times this season.

Russell Wilson LESS THAN 290.5 PASSING YARDS

Early in the season, the refrain was “Let Russ cook” and the Seahawks did, sparking early MVP talk for their quarterback. Wilson’s cooking hasn’t been MVP-caliber lately, though, as he has been held under 265 passing yards in four straight games. He does have the benefit of going against the New York Jets this week and the Jets have the second worst pass defense in the league, though has bad as they are, only six teams have had quarterbacks pass for more than 290 yards against them. Once the game gets out of reach, teams tend to stop throwing and that scenario could limit Wilson in this game.

Philip Rivers LESS THAN 289.5 PASSING YARDS

The Colts veteran has been productive enough this season, throwing for 271.9 yards per contest, which makes it a significant ask for him to throw for at least 290 against the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that is below average against the pass but has allowed five quarterbacks to pass for at least 290 yards against them this season – Patrick Mahomes, twice, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Justin Herbert.

Justin Herbert MORE THAN 289.5 PASSING YARDS

Even though he has been held in check a couple of times in the past month, the Chargers rookie is still having a phenomenal year, passing for 293.1 yards per game while throwing for more than 290 yards in seven of his 11 appearances. Herbert matches up with an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed more than 290 yards in seven games this season, though none in the past three weeks. Two of those weeks involved games with Taysom Hill at quarterback for the New Orleans Saints, so they aren’t a great comparison for how Herbert bombs away for the Chargers.

Rapidfire

D.K. Metcalf +12.5 receiving yards vs. Davante Adams

A matchup of elite wide receivers. Metcalf is putting up 99.3 receiving yards per game and faces the abysmal New York Jets while Adams has 102.9 receiving yards per game and faces the mediocre Detroit Lions. If we discount Week 2, when Adams left early with an injury, he’s averaging 110.3 yards per game, which is incredible, but not enough to like him by more than 12 yards against Metcalf.

Aaron Jones -10.5 rushing yards vs. Chris Carson

Coming off his second 100-yard rushing game of the season, the Packers’ Jones has delivered 75.4 rushing yards per game and goes against a Lions team that is not great against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Carson, who has missed time with injuries, has not had a heavy workload this season and is averaging 53.6 rushing yards per game. He goes against a Jets team that, for all of its many flaws, is respectable against the run, holding opponents to 3.8 yards per carry. Some of that may be because teams are just running out the clock but that situation should be in play again this week, too.

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*The numbers in this article are subject to change at anytime*

Scott Cullen

Scott is a sportswriter with a focus on analytics, rankings, fantasy. Even though he’s Canadian, his interests and analysis extend a wee bit beyond hockey and maple syrup. Eh?