Week 16 Sunday MKF Picks

Week 16 of the NFL season has teams jockeying for playoff position as well as teams playing out the string. For all of them, there are matchups available to play and win on Monkey Knife Fight.

There are some quality matchups this week. Colts-Steelers, Rams-Seahawks, and Titans-Packers are three games that involve teams with winning records. The Cowboys-Eagles game has NFC East playoff implications, too.

Whether the game is close or not, there are always arguments for and against each side in the MKF contests.

Here are some angles to consider for Sunday’s NFL schedule on Monkey Knife Fight.


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Patrick Mahomes MORE THAN 329.5 PASSING YARDS

This is a large number, as one might expect for Mahomes, since he has thrown for more than 330 yards in a game seven times this season. While the Falcons pass defense has improved somewhat since early in the season, they have still surrendered more than 330 passing yards four times (plus another couple over 320 yards) including 390 yards last week against Tom Brady. It should go without saying that Mahomes is also better than the quarterbacks that have already obliterated the Falcons previously.

Deshaun Watson LESS THAN 287.5 PASSING YARDS

Watson is heating up, even if the Texans continue to stumble around the field. Watson has passed for at least 288 yards in four of the past five games but goes up against a Bengals team that doesn’t typically give up huge passing yardage – something about losing all the time – and has held four of their past five opponents under 250 passing yards, three of the past five under 190 passing yards.

Ben Roethlisberger LESS THAN 274.5 PASSING YARDS

The Steelers are reeling and it doesn’t seem to be something that can be easily fixed. They can’t run the ball effectively and Big Ben can’t throw down the field. He has been held under 275 passing yards in four of the past five games, including less than 190 passing yards in back-to-back games. He does meet an Indianapolis team that has allowed more than 300 passing yards in four of the past five games but two of those games were against Deshaun Watson and one against Aaron Rodgers; Roethlisberger’s recent performance is far away from that level.


Did you know that the last time that Kelce had fewer than eight catches in a game was Week 7? During that seven-game streak, he has scored more than 20.5 PPR fantasy points in six of them. Needing more than 20.5 points is preposterous but, right now, so is Kelce.


Nick Chubb -4.5 rushing yards vs. David Montgomery

Recent production trends makes this a more competitive matchup. For the season, Chubb is averaging 93.1 rushing yards per game and Montgomery sits at 69.7 rushing yards per game. However, Chubb has been held under 90 rushing yards in three straight games and Montgomery has rushed for more than 100 yards three times in the past four games. The other factor is that Chubb is facing a Jets team that, as bad as they are, is okay against the run, allowing 4.0 yards per carry, while Montgomery faces a Jaguars team giving up 4.6 yards per carry. Even taking all of that into consideration, Chubb’s full body of work this season is just too strong to ignore.

Travis Kelce +0.5 receiving yards vs. Calvin Ridley

With Julio Jones sidelined, Ridley is the primary receiver in the Falcons attack and has three straight games with more than 100 receiving yards, lifting him to 91.7 receiving yards per game this season. Kelce, as noted previous, is ridiculous. He’s averaging 94.1 yards per game with more than 100 receiving yards in five of the past seven contests.



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Seattle’s pass defense has improved quite a bit since an abysmal start to the season and they have held quarterbacks under 280 passing yards in four of the past five games. Goff’s production has slowed down recently, too, with fewer than 210 passing yards in three of the past four games.

Russell Wilson LESS THAN 275.5 PASSING YARDS

Early in the season it was all about letting Russ cook and, somewhere along the way, that aerial attack has lost some lustre and Wilson has thrown for less than 275 passing yards in six straight games. The Rams are also killers against the pass. They have allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than 275 yards against them this season: Buffalo’s Josh Allen, in Week 3.


Philadelphia’s new starting quarterback passed for 338 yards in his second start and goes up against a Cowboys defense that has been inconsistent against the pass but allowed 319 passing yards to San Francisco’s second and third-string quarterbacks last week.


While the Cowboys run defense has been porous, Sanders has not been as productive lately, held to 66 yards or less in four of the past five games.


D.K. Metcalf -5.5 receiving yards vs. Keenan Allen

Both star receivers have seen their production fall off in the past few weeks but Allen is still dealing with a hamstring issue that could make his status more questionable for Week 16.


*The numbers listed in this article are subject to change leading at anytime leading up to kick-off of each respective game*

Scott Cullen

Scott is a sportswriter with a focus on analytics, rankings, fantasy. Even though he’s Canadian, his interests and analysis extend a wee bit beyond hockey and maple syrup. Eh?