My analysis will be broken down into three sections:
- Dancing With The Stars
- Two To Tango
- The Big Dance
"Dancing With the Stars" focuses on the early slate and three stars who I love their chances of getting into the endzone. Two to Tango’ are two games that I like with sneaky touchdown upside. ‘The Big Dance; will focus on the main event that I am targeting and should prove to be the matchup with the largest potential for explosive play.
Dance Monkey Dance!: The $5,000 TD Dance giveaway is BACK for Week 17. Rules are easy: enter any early slate TD Dance game and have all THREE players score a touchdown for a chance to win a piece of a $5,000 prize pot. This is on top of all the loot you'll put in your pocket from your regular TD Dance goodness (you must play a minimum of one $5 contest)!
Need help getting started? Here's a Star Shootout lineup for the late games that will give you a good shot at your share of the $5K:
Dancing With The Stars
- Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
- Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
- David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
Two To Tango
You've won your fantasy football championships, your NYE hangover is almost gone, and now, you are ready for some football. Week 17 is typically a snore for fantasy, unless you are into deep, deep DFS plays. This Week 17 has a whole host of playoff berths and first round byes on the line that'll make this weekend a thrilling one for TD Dancing. The key matchups will be on the late slate, and, focused on the AFC South. Jonathan Taylor and the Colts need a win and a Titans loss to clinch the AFC South and a playoff berth.
Taylor has been consistent in the last two weeks, logging two weeks of 60%+ snaps, and in a must win game, this trend should continue, if not climb. With Taylor's current snap share, he is getting Derrick Henry-esque type usage, and is producing. Taylor has scored at least one TD in each of his last four games, with two 2TDs performances in Week 14 & 16. If you were dancing with us last week, you would have cashed in on the the early slate shootout where we had JT as part of our lineup, along with Travis Kelce and Nick Chubb. Taylor should have no issues with a Jacksonville run defense that has given up the 4th most fantasy points and 18 TDs to the running back position.
A big performance by JT is needed, as is one by Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. Hilton was on a tear before Week 15 going three straight games with a TD and was a top ten wide receiver twice in that span. Target volume has stayed consistent (Week 15 - 6 targets, Week 16 - 7 targets), and Hilton should be a strong play against the Jaguars corner Chris Claybrooks. Hilton is the No. 1 target for Phillip Rivers in this Colts passing game, and will be counted on to do a tango or two as the Colts playoff lives are on the line.
The playoff dreams of the Jaguars have long been dead. There was some life shown last week in the passing game with TDs by wide receivers D.J Chark and Laviska Shenault. I'd give you fielders choice on either Chark or Shenault in this one if it wasn't for Chark drawing No. 1 corner back coverage from Xavier Rhodes. That's why I'm leaning on the rookie Shenault to continue to make a statement in his rookie season. Shenault will see the weaker corner back matchup, and with Jags running back James Robinson ruled out, they will be forced to the air in what will most likely be negative game script.
- Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis
- T.Y HIlton, WR, Indianapolis
- Laviska Shenault, WR, Jacksonville
The Bears were given a gift last week from George Kittle and the 49ers with an upset win against the Cardinals. This put the Bears within a win of the playoffs, and to keep their playoff aspirations alive, they need to beat the Packers at home. The Packers are playing for a first-round bye that is critical for a veteran team with Super Bowl aspirations.
It'll be David Montgomery who the Bears and TD Dancers put in the spotlight against a Packers run defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the running back position. The Packers allowed Montgomery to go off for 103 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards and a receiving TD in Week 12. Montgomery is the focal point of this offense as the passing game has proven to be mercurial at best. Take advantage of Montgomery's continued strength of schedule in this must win for the Bears.
Though the Bears are in a must-win situation, it is tough to pick another Bears TD Dancer even with them being at Soldier Field. The positive here is that Green Bay has a plethora of options to choose from, and with the Packers still needing a win to secure their bye week, they will be starting their stars on the road. It would make sense to go back to Davante Adams, who's four TD performance last week would have secured you MKF TD Dance cash and if rostered on your fantasy football team, a league championship. Adams season has been transcendent: 17 TDs, 109 receptions and 1328 receiving yards in only 13 games. Adams is only one TD away from tying the Packers all-time touchdown record set by Sterling Sharpe in 1994. Could we see Adams grab two TDs and set the Packers record while vaunting the Packers to a first-round bye?
You bet your ass. It'd be easy to understand why you would want to go back to rookie running back A.J Dillon after his 2 TD, 129 yard performance last week. Spoiler alert: we are going with Aaron Jones who sneakily hit 1,000 yards on the year against the Titans while quietly posting his fifth 100+ yard game of the season. When the game was out of reach for the Titans, it made sense that the Packers went to the rookie Dillon. This resulted in Jones lowest snap count of the season logging only 38.7% of snaps. In a game that has table stakes for both teams, Jones usage will be well above last weeks snap share and will be centerstage for the Packers offense and the team's bid for a first-round bye.
My Dance Partners:
- David Montgomery, RB, CHI
- Davante Adams, WR, GB
- Aaron Jones, RB, GB
🏈 Titans @ Texans
2021 couldn't come soon enough for the 4-11 Houston Texans. Star defensive end J.J Watt told the press that the team is "trash" and that they "stink" after a 37-31 loss to the lowly Bengals. Could this motivate the Texans to play the spoiler against the Titans who need a win to clinch the AFC South? Whatever the impact of Watt's rant, we just want running back David Johnson to continue to do what he is doing. Over the last two weeks Johnson has been RB6 and RB4 and is coming off a 2 TD performance against the Bengals. Johnson does not seem to have any lingering affects of a concussion that put him on IR logging a high snap share (Week 15- 85.5% Week 16-94%) and back to back 100+ yard games. The Titans have been bad against the run and pass, and we hope that D.J can keep his roll going into 2021.
The Titans roll came to a cold, hard stop against the Packers at Lambeau last week. Throwing off the Titans game plan was the quick lead the Packers got out to, and they could not establish Derrick Henry and the run like we've seen them be so successful at doing all season long. Getting out front early against the Texans 3rd worst defense shouldn't be difficult, and A.J Brown can help the the Titans gain the lead early. Brown doesn't see the volume as other WR1s playing in a Titan's system that ranks 30th in pass volume. Here's the thing: he doesn't need it. Brown is extremely efficient with his targets, ranking 3rd in fantasy points per route run and averages 4.1 yards after the catch per per target. In the Titans first matchup against the Texans, Brown took Houston cornerback Bradley Roby for 56 yards and 2 TDs en route to a 42-36 Titans overtime win. In tandem, Brown and running back Derrick Henry when firing are nearly unstoppable together.
Henry continues to impress week in and week out, already eclipsing his 2019 rushing total with 1777 rushing yards on the year. Even on an off week, Henry still rushed for 98 yards against the Packers and his play was held back by negative game script, not ability. The King should re-establish his reign against the Texans who have allowed 151.7 rushing yards a game and the most fantasy points to running backs. Mix in the must win nature of this game, plus Henry having some unfinished business after last weeks Packer game, we might see Henry push for a 2000+ yard season. Would a 223+ yard game against the leagues worst run defense surprise you? Not I.
Sorry JJ that was a moving speech and all, there's just no stopping the reign of the King.
My Dance Partners:
- David Johnson, RB, HOU
- A.J Brown, WR, TEN
- Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
Need more picks for Week 17 that aren't centered around the TD Dance? Check out MKF analyst Scott Cullen's top picks to play.